HomeRoast Digest


Topic: A quantitative way to select coffees (13 msgs / 371 lines)
1) From: Jim Gundlach
One of the problems I have as a result of my illness is that I have  
difficulty remembering nouns, especially complex and long ones like in  
the names of the coffees SweetMaria sells.  So after spending a large  
amount of time reading the reviews and trying to remember the coffee  
to put the order in, I decided to take a quantitative approach that  
allowed me to overcome my current handicap to place today's order for  
20 pounds of greens that should give me quality coffee for close to  
six months.
I entered the name, price for one pound, and Tom's total quality  
rating into a JMP data set.  I then used simple linear regression  
analysis to use the price for one pound to predict the quality score.   
Once I had that regression equation in place, I then calculated the  
residual by subtracting the predicted quality score of each bean from  
Tom's quality score.  There were two beans that had quality scores  
more than four points above the value predicted by their price so I  
went ahead and ordered five pounds of each of them.  If I had  
absolutely wanted to maximize the quality for price I would have  
ordered 20 pounds of the coffee with the largest positive residual but  
I do love variety so I selected a variety from the best buys suggested  
by this method.  Then there were five beans that had a quality score  
of more than three, but less than four, points above the predicted  
value so I ordered two pounds of each of them.  That gave me my twenty  
pound order.  Once the beans are here and I have tried them I will let  
you know what my taste buds and nose lead me to think of this  
selection method.  I am not posting the specific coffees I selected  
here because I still do not sufficiently trust the quality of the  
intellectual work I do since I lost part of my brain to have others  
possibly place their orders based on my work.
I again apologize  for writing something difficult to read but in  
addition to the herpes simplex encephalitis handicap, I had two teeth  
pulled this afternoon and I think there are some side negative effects  
of the pain killers and possibly just the damned pain on my writing.
    pecan jim
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2) From: Yakster
Jim,
Don't apologize, I hadn't thought of the approach that you've chosen (linear
regression analysis) and it sounds promising.  For me, it was an interesting
read, but then again, I used to take every table in the wild and pivotize it
in excel so that I could slice and dice it and analyze it six ways from
Sunday.
When you're a filter basket, everything looks like ground coffee, I guess.
Let us know how it works out!
-Chris
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3) From: Phil Palmintere
For a little fun, and perhaps a better choice model, you could try a
Bayesian approach.  Bayesian linear regression.  
<Snip>
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4) From: Sheila Quinn
Sounds like an interesting way to choose coffees. Let us know how it 
works out for you! :)
Sheila
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5) From: Jim Gundlach
Actually, looking for a better statistical model, the traditional  
scientific goal, would decrease the satisfaction of using this bargain  
hunting technique.  If you find that quality adequately explains price  
you loose the chance to get better coffee for less money.  In this  
case the plotting of Tom's score by price tells you all you really  
need to know if you set it up to plot the names of the coffees.  But,  
since I unthinkingly entered the full long names of the coffees they  
became unreadable in the plot on my computer screen.  Calculating the  
residuals and sorting the data set by the residuals puts the best buys  
at one end and the ones this approach suggests are most over priced at  
the other.  This way I was able to have the names of the coffees I  
wanted to buy displayed on the bottom of my computer screen while I  
bounced through SweetMarias web pages on the top part of my computer  
screen to place my order.   Actually, I ended up doing this because I  
could not find a pen to write down the names of the coffees I decided  
I wanted to order as I browsed through the descriptions like I usually  
do and the main disability I have as a result of this disease killing  
part of my brain is that I have a great deal of difficulty remembering  
nouns.
        pecan  jim
On Dec 16, 2009, at 10:02 PM, Phil Palmintere wrote:
<Snip>
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6) From: Michael Dhabolt
Jim,
Don't you just gotta love math Geeks ? ;~)
Mike (just plain)
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7) From: Lynne
Jim - you amaze me. I  have a tough time remembering lots of stuff (my kids
get super nervous w/it, so I do try to hide my memory faux-pas as much as I
can). I've been dx'd w/fibromyalgia - I'm very fortunate to have a great
doctor at MGH in Boston (he's close to retiring, and I have no idea what
I'll do when that day comes along!)
Asked him once if part of my memory problem could be from a car accident I
had a long time ago, but he said that the xrays (c-scan, mri, whatever they
use these days) would look the same whether it was brain injury or
fibromyalgia.
Wow - *that* made me feel great! 
I find it terribly difficult to write w/pen or pencil - for some reason,
it's hard for me to write down what my brain is thinking, but typing is much
easier for me (until the intense pain takes over, then I can't do much of
anything). Except roasting my coffee - even w/pain, I love roasting by hand.
I find it's therapeutic for me - very relaxing.
My solution, beyond cut and paste (many times even forgetting that I've done
that) is much less scientific. I read the descriptions, spend hours putting
some in my cart, deleting - but many times my decision is based on, "oooo -
waw, buckan wain - that's fun to say!!" or the other one, something Bongo
(gone now) that I loved - the name reminded me of the song by Joe Summer &
the Mescaleros: Mondo Bongo.
I do wish you would post what you chose - and show how you did it, because
it's way beyond me!
Lynne
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8) From: Kris McN
On Wed, Dec 16, 2009 at 8:02 PM, Phil Palmintere <
phil.palmintere> wrote:
<Snip>
Network for choosing coffee varietals to order.  I don't have Jim's need of
working around a cognitive impairment, I'm just learning how to use the
modeling software for my work and thought it would be fun to build a fairly
simple network around coffee data.  The BBN let's me include all the price
and scoring data as well as conditional probability tables based on "expert
opinion" (aka, my own preferences) (I tend to like DP coffees over WP, for
example), and preferred flavor characteristics.  I'll end up with something
like a Probability of Satisfaction (for me).  I'm thinking of included some
information on recommended roast levels and brew methods too.  A bit
bringing-a-bazooka-to-a-knife-fight, but I'm just messing around :-).  I
like to mix my geek-ish pursuits.
Kris McN
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9) From: Starfinder Stanley
Very interesting, Jim.... I look forward to your gustatory grading of your
bargain hunting method!  Good on ya; seems to me that even missing a chunk
of grey matter, you still have a lot more cognitive function than the
average american!
Have you (or Lynn) looked at some of the apps for life-tracking, like
Evernote or reQall?  I haven't done much playing with them myself, but they
seem like they might be quite invaluable to people with memory issues....
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10) From: Brian Kamnetz
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11) From: Michael Irrera
Brian,
I believe you mean Infinite IMprobability Drive. Big difference.   
Something infinitely probable isn't very interesting, now, is it?
Ah, humans. Depressing.
-Marvin
On Dec 20, 2009, at 2:07 PM, Brian Kamnetz  wrote:
<Snip>
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12) From: Brian Kamnetz
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13) From: raymanowen
Shhh- Don't tell; Don't Nobody Ask!
I guess the crack in my belfry left me with a jacked-up palate.
My honey, the Celtic Critic, has long baked artisan bread loaves of
differing ethnic persuasion. Post TBI, nothing tasted right, even two
successive cups of chili from the same pot after an overnighter in the
fridge. One good, one not.
"Right, Ray- Oh, Look! The kitchen's empty. It's all yours- have at it!"
Recently, that led to grinding whole grain wheat to flour in the Major, for
some possible nutritional benefit. Some bread shell failures with chili
filling. Toast, on grated Cheddar, Chili, Turmeric, more Garlic and onions
in the "dugout" and shredded Parmesan filling on top of that...
Then, who cares if my chili or the bread is a failure? Jalapeņos cook rig=
ht
down, so a slice of Tillamook Extra Sharp Cheddar is the greater gustatory
challenge.
Usually, my coffee blends are "Bailout Blends," to roast the last of some
beans when I don't have 400g of any one of them. Now, there's a problem.
This is huge, and I'm going to be sorry I didn't follow my 5 pound minimum
lot size when ordering greens. Espresso blends are already chosen by the
Master, so why not just go with 2 pounds each of the Puro Scuro and the
Auriferous espresso workshop #2?
NEVER AGAIN!  Fivers are positively the Minimum!
What?
[Fox reports "Study: Coffee may reduce risk of diabetes and prostate cancer.
OK. Good news.
If you have diabetes, coffee may exacerbate it!?? "
Say WHAT? Just saw it on Fox news]
Does not apply...
I was not really enthused about the Puro Scuro when I first roasted it, so
thought I had kept the 2# pack for later, when I'd make a different roasting
or brewing misteak. Rong! All gone-
I liked the Liquid Amber, so still have a pound + left. I used the 2# pack
sparingly. Dang little baggies. So, where'd I put the Auriferous w-s #2?
Happily, I found two Fivers of IMV, for a total of ~6# left. All this
because I thought the Capresso was at risk of blowing up in the middle of a
shot.
The missing instructions in the operation manual are left to the operator to
figure out himself.
Now I remember- I didn't want to risk good coffee beans in the Crapesso, but
I was nursing some great shots out of the sick machine.
-ro
On Wed, Dec 16, 2009 at 6:15 PM, Jim Gundlach wrote:
<Snip>
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-- =
Persist in old ways; expect new results - suborn Insanity...
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